Critical Minerals in Agriculture
Potash, phosphate rock, and boron are non-substitutable crop nutrients. Geographically concentrated supply chains mean disruptions directly impact global fertilizer pricing, crop yields, and food security.
Modern agriculture is built on mined minerals.
Every commercial crop grown at scale depends on phosphorus and potassium mined from geological deposits. Nitrogen can be synthesized from the atmosphere, but phosphorus and potassium have no synthetic alternative. They must be extracted from phosphate rock and potash ore bodies, processed into fertilizer-grade chemicals, and applied to soils to sustain yields.
The 2022 price spike following the Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrated how fertilizer supply disruptions translate rapidly into food price inflation, disproportionately affecting food-importing developing economies. Belarus and Russia together account for roughly 40% of global potash supply.
Agricultural Minerals
Fertilizer disruptions are food price shocks.
Over 70% of global phosphate rock reserves are concentrated in Morocco and Western Sahara. Belarus and Russia together control roughly 40% of global potash supply. Trade sanctions, export bans, or logistics disruptions at these sources directly affect food-producing economies worldwide.
Unlike energy minerals where substitution or efficiency gains can partially offset supply shortfalls, there is no substitute for phosphorus or potassium in plant biology. Disruptions translate into reduced yields within a single growing season.
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025; IFA World Fertilizer Outlook 2025.